Bitcoin Price Up 1% As Tom Lee Says BTC Could Still Drop 50%

The Bitcoin price has risen over 1% in the last 24 hours, trading at $111,331 as of 4:00 a.m. EST, on a 31% decrease in daily trading volume to $50.47 billion.

That BTC price increase happened even as Tom Lee, BitMine’s well-known chairman, says that even as Bitcoin becomes more popular with big investment firms, sharp drops of 50% or more are still possible.

“Just holding crypto on a balance sheet doesn’t guarantee long-term performance,” he explained, reminding everyone of Bitcoin’s turbulent past.​

⚡️TOM LEE: BITCOIN NOT IMMUNE TO A 50% CRASH

He warns that even with Wall Street backing, $BTC could still face deep drawdowns, just like the stock market. pic.twitter.com/xOgzIb6YY0

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 24, 2025

In the last few weeks, Bitcoin has faced rough swings. First shooting up to nearly $126,000 and then tumbling below $110,000 before bouncing back. Despite the pullbacks, Bitcoin’s position above $110,000 shows the market still has faith, for now.​​​

Still, big investors have pumped more than $1.2 trillion into Bitcoin through major exchanges in the past year, making it the biggest crypto entry point in the world. Even as other cryptocurrencies gain ground, Bitcoin remains the first choice for traditional investors, especially in the US.​

Bitcoin On-Chain Data: Activity Stays High Despite Warnings

On-chain signals give a clearer picture of what’s happening behind the price. Bitcoin remains the leader in terms of network activity and overall demand.

Trading volume for on-chain perpetuals (crypto derivatives traded directly on the blockchain) hit all-time highs in October, with more than $1 trillion worth of notional value exchanged this month alone. This suggests strong interest from institutional and retail traders alike, even as prices swing up and down.​

Still, some red flags are showing. The number of Bitcoin transfers between wallets and exchanges has increased during price drops, typically a sign that some holders are looking to take profits or limit their losses.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Source: CryptoQuant

While many long-term holders are staying put, new buyers are stepping in every time Bitcoin dips below major support levels. This suggests that the market remains active, with buyers and sellers quickly reacting to moves in price.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: BTC Showing A Bearish Tilt

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation zone after a sharp drop from its recent highs near $126,000. The price is holding above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $108,445.78, which acts as a key support level. The 50-day SMA is at $114,194.62, now just above the latest price, creating a “zone of resistance” overhead.​

BTCUSD Analysis Source: Tradingview

Technical indicators provide mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 47.34, showing the market is neutral, meaning buyers and sellers are evenly matched for now.​

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays below the signal line, a sign that bearish momentum could continue if buyers fail to step in.​

Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 25.47, indicating the trend is present but not overwhelming, and the market could easily tip in either direction.​

The chart also shows clear horizontal support and resistance zones. Sellers have repeatedly pushed Bitcoin down from the $125,000–$126,000 area, as marked by red arrows. On the downside, strong support can be found just above $108,000 and around $105,000, close to the 200-day SMA.

A fall below those levels would be a warning of deeper corrections, and as Lee says, strong corrections should never be ruled out, even in bullish cycles.​

Conversely, if the price moves above resistance at $114,200 and then $118,000, Bitcoin could try to retest recent highs. But without a strong catalyst, the path to higher levels looks challenging..

For now, technical and on-chain data show Bitcoin is holding, but bulls face a tough road. As the market waits for its next big catalyst, staying above $108,000 is key. If not, even Wall Street’s favorite crypto could see a sharp drop before bouncing back.

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