BTC price forecast: Bitcoin stays below $112k ahead of Powell speech

TL;DR

BTC is down 3% in the last 24 hours and trading around $111,200 per coin.
The negative performance comes amid the ongoing U.S.-China tariff war and Powell’s speech later today.

BTC dips to $111k

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down 3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading around $111,200 per coin. The bearish performance comes amid rising US-China trade conflict, with traders expecting further volatility in the market.

In addition to that, the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an outflow of over $320 million on Monday, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to the market. 

Fed chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later today, with market participants focusing their attention on the event, which could spark fresh volatility across risk assets, such as Bitcoin.

Investors will be looking for fresh hints on the possibility of an interest rate cut later this month. However, with the ongoing US government shutdown limiting new economic data releases, Powell might offer little information on the upcoming FOMC meeting. 

Finally, on-chain data reveals that the wallet, referred to as BitcoinOG, which shorted BTC right before Friday’s dump last week, has increased its open short position earlier today. This latest development brings the total short position to over 4,394 BTC. 

Two other whales with significant profits on Hyperliquid have also opened large short positions in the market as they expect a further dump in the near term. 

BTC remains bearish as traders adopt a cautious approach

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient as Bitcoin has underperformed over the last 24 hours. BTC slightly recovered on Monday, hitting the $115k mark following Friday’s sharp decline. 

However, it has failed to maintain the momentum and is now trading at $111,200 per coin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 42 on the 4H chart, which is below its neutral level of 50. The RSI indicates momentum is gaining traction. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on Friday, remains bearish, suggesting further selling pressure. 

If the BTC correction continues, the coin could dip lower towards the next major support level at $107,245. However, if the bulls regain control of the market, they could push the price towards the $115k resistance level once again.