Jessie A Ellis
Sep 20, 2025 06:58
DOT price trades at $4.40 with strong bullish signals intact despite 4.18% daily decline. Supply cap decision and technical breakout suggest upside potential remains.
Quick Take
• DOT currently trading at $4.40 (-4.18% in 24h)
• Polkadot’s RSI at 58.12 indicates neutral momentum with bullish MACD crossover
• Community approved supply cap at 2.1 billion tokens drives fundamental strength
What’s Driving Polkadot Price Today?
The most significant catalyst for DOT price action this week stems from the community’s landmark decision to cap Polkadot’s total supply at 2.1 billion tokens through Referendum 1710. This fundamental shift from an inflationary model to a fixed supply framework has created strong bullish sentiment, even as the DOT price experiences today’s 4.18% pullback.
Recent governance activity continues to showcase Polkadot’s active ecosystem development. Referendum 1756, proposing a relay chain upgrade to runtime version 1.7.1, is passing with near-unanimous support, while Referendum 1729 for treasury diversification into USDT and USDC maintains 96.3% approval. These developments, while not immediately price-impacting, reinforce Polkadot’s commitment to technical advancement and treasury management.
The current daily decline appears to be profit-taking rather than fundamental weakness, as the broader market sentiment remains supportive following the supply cap announcement. Trading volume of $48.2 million on Binance spot markets indicates healthy institutional interest despite the temporary price compression.
DOT Technical Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge
Polkadot technical analysis reveals compelling bullish momentum despite today’s price action. The DOT RSI reading of 58.12 positions the token in neutral territory with room for upward movement, while the MACD histogram shows a positive 0.0259 reading, confirming bullish momentum continuation.
The moving average structure strongly favors buyers, with DOT price trading above both the 7-day SMA at $4.34 and the 20-day SMA at $4.13. More importantly, Polkadot maintains its position above the critical 200-day SMA at $4.05, indicating the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Polkadot’s Bollinger Bands analysis shows the DOT price positioned at 0.7583 within the bands, suggesting the recent rally has room to extend toward the upper band at $4.64. The daily ATR of $0.23 indicates moderate volatility, providing traders with clear risk parameters for position sizing.
Polkadot Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Based on Binance spot market data, critical Polkadot support levels emerge at $3.61 for immediate support and $3.43 for strong support. These levels align with previous consolidation zones and represent attractive entry points for DOT accumulation strategies.
On the upside, DOT resistance appears at $4.88, which coincides with both immediate and strong resistance levels. A break above this threshold could trigger momentum toward the 52-week high of $7.50, representing a potential 70% upside from current levels.
The DOT/USDT trading pair shows particular strength around the pivot point of $4.44, with today’s price action testing this level as potential support. Traders should monitor how Polkadot reacts to this critical juncture, as it may determine short-term directional bias.
Should You Buy DOT Now? Risk-Reward Analysis
For swing traders, the current DOT price of $4.40 presents an interesting risk-reward setup. The supply cap catalyst provides fundamental support, while technical indicators suggest the pullback may be temporary. Conservative entries could target the $3.61 support level with stops below $3.43, offering a favorable 3:1 risk-reward ratio toward $4.88 resistance.
Day traders should focus on the DOT/USDT pair’s reaction around the $4.44 pivot level. A bounce from this area with volume confirmation could provide quick scalping opportunities toward $4.64, while a break below might target the $4.29 daily low.
Long-term investors may view current levels as attractive given the supply cap implementation. The transition from inflation to fixed supply represents a fundamental improvement in DOT tokenomics, potentially supporting higher valuations over time. However, risk management remains crucial, with position sizing appropriate for the 14-period ATR of $0.23.
Conclusion
Despite today’s 4.18% decline, Polkadot technical analysis suggests the broader bullish structure remains intact. The DOT price continues to hold above key moving averages while the supply cap decision provides strong fundamental backing. Traders should monitor the $4.44 pivot level closely, as a hold above this area could signal continuation of the recent rally toward $4.88 resistance. The combination of positive governance developments and constructive technical setup makes DOT an interesting consideration for both short-term trades and longer-term accumulation strategies.
Image source: Shutterstock
