Timothy Peterson’s market simulation shows a 50% chance Bitcoin hits $140K in October.
Bitcoin recently hit $126K, needing a 14.7% rise to reach $140K.
Other analysts, however, note likely short-term pullbacks before potential sustained gains.
Economist Timothy Peterson has projected that Bitcoin could reach $140,000 before the end of October, citing data-driven simulations that indicate a 50% probability of the world’s largest cryptocurrency closing the month above that mark.
The analysis, grounded in more than a decade of Bitcoin’s historical price behaviour, suggests that half of the cryptocurrency’s potential October gains may already have occurred.
Data-driven prediction, not speculation
Peterson’s projection, shared on X on October 7, 2025, was based on “hundreds of simulations” using Bitcoin’s daily price data since 2015.
“There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K,” he wrote, adding that there is a 43% chance it could finish below $136,000.
According to Peterson, the forecast is purely statistical, not influenced by sentiment or subjective opinion.
He emphasised that the results were “based purely on real data, not human emotion or biased opinion,” designed to reflect Bitcoin’s historical volatility and cyclical rhythm.
At the time of his analysis, Bitcoin was trading at around $122,000, having cooled slightly after setting a new all-time high of $126,200 earlier in the week.
Reaching $140,000 would require a roughly 14.7% gain from current levels, a move that aligns closely with Bitcoin’s average October performance over the past decade.
Historical data from CoinGlass shows that October has been Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, typically delivering gains of about 20.75%.
October’s historical significance for Bitcoin
Peterson explained that “Bitcoin’s performance in October isn’t ‘set up’ by September, it’s set up throughout the entire year.”
Bitcoin’s performance in October isn’t “set up” by September, its set up throughout the entire year.
This chart plots Jan–Sept returns vs. October returns since 2015. The stronger Bitcoin performs through the first nine months, the stronger October tends to be. October has… pic.twitter.com/MLtqz5znkD
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 2, 2025
The economist linked Bitcoin’s seasonal strength to broader financial patterns, such as the end of third-quarter portfolio rebalancing, the start of fiscal year planning, and the approach of year-end reporting windows for investment funds.
These factors, he suggested, create favourable conditions for renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin and other risk assets.
While Peterson’s model offers a probability-based outlook, he cautioned that markets do not always conform perfectly to historical patterns.
Bitcoin’s past behaviour has occasionally diverged from expectations even when data indicated high confidence levels.
Nonetheless, he maintains that the model provides a “clear, probability-based picture” of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely to move in the short term.
Market sentiment leans bullish
Peterson’s forecast comes as market sentiment around Bitcoin remains generally optimistic.
Crypto analysts such as Jelle and Matthew Hyland have echoed bullish outlooks in recent days, highlighting Bitcoin’s successful retest of previous highs and suggesting that momentum could push prices further upward.
Earlier this week, Jelle posted, “It’s definitely over for bears. Send it higher,” while Hyland noted that “the pressure is building.”
However, not all voices in the market are calling for an immediate surge.
Analyst Ardi, known for his technical commentary, pointed out that Bitcoin often experiences a short-term pullback of around 5% after hitting new all-time highs.
Such moves, Ardi said, are typically followed by a period of choppiness and consolidation—a pattern that could play out again before any sustained rally.
$BTC loves to dump ~5% after it hits new ATHs, normally followed by a period of chop and consolidation.
Rest of the market most likely chops with it. pic.twitter.com/iZMqaUV6Qc
— Ardi (@AltcoinArdi) October 8, 2025
Technical outlook supports Bitcoin’s upward potential
Technical indicators also appear to support a bullish bias in the near term.
According to market analysis, Bitcoin’s key support level stands at $120,899, with immediate resistance at $124,148 and a higher target of $126,021.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading above all major exponential moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), signalling strong upward momentum.
Projections are that Bitcoin could reach around $121,633 in the coming days, with longer-term forecasts setting ambitious price targets of $221,485 for 2025.
